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UFC Vegas 45 Derrick Lewis vs Chris Daukaus Predictions and Betting Tips
This week’s card has got the holiday spirit 🎁🎄
— UFC (@ufc) December 16, 2021
Derrick Lewis vs Chris Daukaus
Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis (25-8 1NC) hopes to close out the year with a win as he takes on rising heavyweight star Chris Daukaus (12-3).
Lewis last fought in August when he lost in an interim UFC heavyweight title match against Ciryl Gane, ending a four-fight winning streak.
Looking back at his last seven fights, Lewis has lost three of them but the other two losses came in fights against a former champion in Junior Dos Santos, and the current champion at the time, Daniel Cormier.
Daukaus has been elevated to the main event in quick time as he fights in just his fifth UFC contest. So far, he has steamrolled the opposition winning all four of his UFC fights so far by KO/TKO.
Daukaus does not work by the hour as all but his last fight ended in the first round with his last fight lasting just 1:23 into the second round.
However, this is a massive step up in competition and by far the biggest name Daukaus has fought to date. If Daukaus can come out with the win here he could be just another fight away from a title fight.
When the heavyweights get in the cage the expectation is that someone gets finished and we expect that to be the case in this one also.
The fight not to go to the distance is priced at 1/5 though so we prefer to back the fight to go over 1.5 rounds instead at 8/11. If this comes in it will be the longest time Daukaus has spent inside a UFC cage, however, Lewis is his toughest challenge to date.
It is tough to pick a winner in this one and the odds are close, so the bookies also find it difficult. Lewis is battle tested with over 20 UFC fights compared to Daukaus’ four so far. Lewis dispatched a rising contender before the Gane fight when he knocked out Curtis Blaydes with an earth-shattering uppercut.
Lewis of late only loses to champions, experience should play in his favour, and we predict Lewis comes out with the win.
— MMA Junkie (@MMAjunkie) December 16, 2021
Cub Swanson vs Darren Elkins
In a fight expected to kick off the main portion of the fight card, Cub Swanson (27-12) takes on Darren “The Damage” Elkins (26-9) in a barnstormer in the featherweight division.
Both fighters have lost their fair share of fights recently which would normally see any other fighters cut from the UFC. However, the fact they are still here is a testament to how entertaining both fighters are, and this fight should be nothing but entertaining.
Swanson lost last time out to a likely future title contender in Giga Chikadze due to TKO. This was his fifth loss in seven. He won his previous two fights against Kron Gracie and Daniel Pineda which stopped a four-fight losing streak.
Swanson holds victories over both fighters in last week’s lightweight championship match – Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier – which shows what he is capable of, however, he never really capitalised on those 2012 and 2013 wins in a row, as since then he has gone 8-7 in the UFC.
Elkins has been on a similar path to Swanson up to this point, however, Elkins is currently on a two-fight winning streak with a submission win over Luiz Eduardo Garagorri and a TKO win over Darrick Minner.
Prior to that he also lost four in a row including a decision loss to future featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski.
Elkins’ headlining victory has to be his fight against Mirsad Bektic from 2017 when he was getting absolutely dominated before clawing victory from the jaws of defeat by knocking out Bektic midway through the third round, showing the heart that Elkins has in abundance.
Swanson is not short of heart either and this fight promises to be entertaining no matter which way it goes.
For two fighters renowned for entertainment, you would expect this fight to not last the distance. However, when you take a deep dive into the statistics, seven of Swanson’s last 11 fights have gone to a decision.
Six of Elkins’ last 11 have also went to a decision and going further back his previous five before that were also decisions. We predict this one will be an entertaining scrap which will last the full 15 minutes.
Who wins then? Elkins is on better form coming into this one, however it could be argued that Swanson’s schedule of late has been tougher with losses to Frankie Edgar and Brian Ortega included in his four-fight losing streak.
However, at this stage of both men’s careers we see them as being at similar levels and this makes Elkins better value at 6/4 than Swanson’s 8/15 odds. Elkins to win.
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