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UFC 269 – Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier Predictions and Betting Tips
The Diamond shined bright in Abu Dhabi 💎
— UFC (@ufc) December 10, 2021
Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier
Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (31-8 1 NC) makes the first defence of his UFC Lightweight Championship as he takes on number one contender Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier (28-6 1 NC).
In a rarity for UFC betting the challenger, Poirier, enters this fight as the betting favourite. It could be argued that while both fighters have experienced similar levels of success over the past few years, Poirier has faced tougher challenges in the men he has fought.
Poirier’s last ten fights have produced eight wins, one loss and one no contest with wins over former champions such as Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez, Max Holloway and two wins over Conor McGregor – his last two fights.
Poirier’s two recent fights against McGregor has put him into this position as challenger, winning the first by TKO due to punches and the second one by doctor stoppage due to McGregor’s horrendous leg break at the end of the first round. Poirier was winning the fight handily prior to this.
Poirier avenged a loss to McGregor back in 2014 which was Poirier’s last fight in the Featherweight division. Since moving up ten pounds, Poirier has won 12 fights, with seven of these coming by KO/TKO.
For Oliveira it is a similar story in that “Do Bronx” used to fight at lightweight, moved down to featherweight, before moving back up.
Oliveira made the move back up after missing the 146lb weight limit on several occasions and losing three of his last four featherweight fights. Since moving back up in 2017, Oliveira has won ten fights, including nine straight, while losing just once.
During this run Oliveira has claimed UFC records in the most submission wins in history (14), as well as in his last fight breaking the UFC record for the most finishes (17).
Oliveira has always been known as an excellent submission fighter using his excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to break down opponents, but of late he has also shown he’s developed the power to put opponents away with strikes – three of his last five fights have been by KO/TKO including his last one against Michael Chandler.
This fight is priced close for a reason, two fighters on a similar path and trajectory, similar experience and similar MMA records.
We can’t see this fight going the full five rounds, however, the fight not to last the distance is priced at just 1/4. Instead, we prefer backing the fight to last over 1.5 rounds at 8/13, meaning the fight just must last seven and a half minutes to cash in.
While it is hard to choose a winner in this one, if you were to choose Oliveira, it is likely he gets it done with a finish. William Hill have enhanced their price on Oliveira to win either by KO/TKO/DQ or submission to 9/4.
The bad blood boils over Saturday 🩸
— UFC (@ufc) December 10, 2021
Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena
The greatest women’s fighter of all time, Amanda “The Lioness” Nunes (21-4) faces off against challenger Julianna “The Venezuelan Vixen” Pena (10-4) in the co-main event for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship.
Nunes has been bantamweight champion for over five years now and just under three years ago added the Featherweight Championship to her collection defeating Cris Cyborg.
Since her sole UFC loss, Nunes has won 12 straight and looks quite frankly unbeatable. If there are any negatives to be found towards the Nunes side, it is that it will be nearly two years to the day since Nunes defended the bantamweight title.
Her last two fights have been defences of the featherweight title, meaning this will be first time in a while Nunes has had to cut weight to reach the 135lb weight limit.
The bookies, however, do not see this as an issue pricing Nunes at an unbackable 1/10.
Pena is the next challenger for Nunes, and she has gone two wins, two losses in her last four which tells you all you need to know about the state of the rankings currently.
Of the contenders around Pena, Nunes has either beaten them already or young hopes such as Aspen Ladd are simply not ready yet.
Pena is clearly the most battle tested out of those Nunes is yet to face and gets her opportunity here, and if Pena existed in a time where Nunes didn’t, she would be very capable of being a world champion.
Upsets can and of course have happened so you can never 100% rule someone out, however, you’d have to offer a lot more than the 6/1 about Pena for that to be considered a sensible bet.
Nunes should win this one but cannot be backed at the 1/10 odds.
Including featherweight title fights, Nunes’ wins have all come either in the first round or the fifth round, there has been no middle ground, one extreme or another.
We believe that Pena has enough to stay in this fight for at least seven and a half minutes, therefore we predict the fight will last over 1.5 rounds.
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